Solar Market Insight Report

Introduction

• In Q2 2024, the US solar market installed 9.4 GW_dc of capacity, a record second quarter for the industry. While installations declined 21% quarter-over-quarter, they increased 29% from a year earlier.   
• Solar accounted for 67% of all new electricity-generating capacity added to the US grid in the first half of 2024.
• Domestic module manufacturing capacity increased by over 10 GW to 31.3 GW in Q2 2024 as more facilities continued to come online.
• Texas was the leading state for solar installations in the first half of the year, with 5.5 GW_dc online – nearly twice as much capacity as Florida, the second-ranked state, which had 2.9 GW_dc.
• The residential segment continued to decline, with 1.1 GW_dc installed in Q2, a decrease of 10% quarter-over-quarter and 37% year-over-year. California continued to drive this decline, shrinking 36% from the first quarter during the state’s transition to net billing. We expect residential solar installations to hit a floor this year, driving a 19% contraction in residential solar nationwide.  
• The commercial solar segment installed 427 MW_dc in Q2 2024, 5% less than Q1 2024 and 6% more than Q2 2023.
• The community solar segment installed 270 MW_dc in Q2 2024, a decline of 12% both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. A handful of states saw quarter-over-quarter growth, but this was outweighed by declines in key markets like Maine, Massachusetts, and Illinois.  
• The utility-scale segment installed 7.6 GW_dc, a robust 59% increase year-over-year. While this reflects a 23% decline from Q1 2024, first quarter volumes were high due to projects finally coming online after various delays throughout 2023.
• In this report, we have incorporated our estimated impacts of potential new antidumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) on imports of crystalline silicon cells and modules from four Southeast Asian countries. Preliminary determinations for these tariffs are anticipated this fall. While there is still considerable uncertainty around final details, we expect that tariff impacts on solar deployment will be modest. There is sufficient cell and module production capacity from multiple sources that isn’t subject to the proposed tariffs: production located outside of the target countries, expanding domestic production, and sources of thin film modules.
• Our latest five-year outlooks show the US solar industry will consistently install at least 40 GW_dc per year from 2025 onward. This year, installations are expected to decline 4%, driven by a 2% decline in the utility-scale segment and a 19% decline in the residential segment. From 2025-2029, annual growth will average 4% for the entire industry. Utility-scale solar – the largest segment – continues to be limited by a lack of labor availability, high-voltage equipment constraints, and interconnection delays.